Mathematical modeling of efficacy and safety for anticancer drugs clinical development

Introduction: Drug attrition in oncology clinical development is higher than in other therapeutic areas. In this context, pharmacometric modeling represents a useful tool to explore drug efficacy in earlier phases of clinical development, anticipating overall survival using quantitative model-based metrics. Furthermore, modeling approaches can be used to characterize earlier the safety and tolerability profile of drug candidates, and, thus, the risk-benefit ratio and the therapeutic index, supporting the design of optimal treatment regimens and accelerating the whole process of clinical drug development.

Areas covered: Herein, the most relevant mathematical models used in clinical anticancer drug development during the last decade are described. Less recent models were considered in the review if they represent a standard for the analysis of certain types of efficacy or safety measures.

Expert opinion: Several mathematical models have been proposed to predict overall survival from earlier endpoints and validate their surrogacy in demonstrating drug efficacy in place of overall survival. An increasing number of mathematical models have also been developed to describe the safety findings. Modeling has been extensively used in anticancer drug development to individualize dosing strategies based on patient characteristics, and design optimal dosing regimens balancing efficacy and safety.