3 years ago

Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Farhana Gul, Dawood Jan, Muhammad Ashfaq

Abstract

This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.

Publisher URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-018-04109-7

DOI: 10.1007/s11356-018-04109-7

You might also like
Discover & Discuss Important Research

Keeping up-to-date with research can feel impossible, with papers being published faster than you'll ever be able to read them. That's where Researcher comes in: we're simplifying discovery and making important discussions happen. With over 19,000 sources, including peer-reviewed journals, preprints, blogs, universities, podcasts and Live events across 10 research areas, you'll never miss what's important to you. It's like social media, but better. Oh, and we should mention - it's free.

  • Download from Google Play
  • Download from App Store
  • Download from AppInChina

Researcher displays publicly available abstracts and doesn’t host any full article content. If the content is open access, we will direct clicks from the abstracts to the publisher website and display the PDF copy on our platform. Clicks to view the full text will be directed to the publisher website, where only users with subscriptions or access through their institution are able to view the full article.