Application of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score for the predication of mortality after esophageal variceal hemorrhage post endoscopic ligation

by Ming-Wun Wong, Ming-Jen Chen, Huan-Lin Chen, Yu-Chi Kuo, I-Tsung Lin, Chia-Hsien Wu, Yuan-Kai Lee, Chun-Han Cheng, Ming-Jong Bair

Esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is one of the high mortality complications in cirrhotic patients. Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is currently the standard therapy for EVH. However, some patients have expired during hospitalization or survived shortly after management.

To evaluate hospital and 6-week mortality by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score compared to a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) class.

We retrospectively collected 714 cirrhotic patients with EVH post EVL between July 2010 and June 2016 at Taitung MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were calculated for all patients admitted.

Among the 714 patients, the overall hospital and 6-week mortality rates were 6.9% (49/715) and 13.1% (94/715) respectively. For predicting hospital death, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.964, 0.876, and 0.846. For predicting 6-week death, AUROC values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.943, 0.817, and 0.834. CLIF-SOFA score had higher AUROC value with statistical significance under pairwise comparison than did MELD score and CTP class in prediction of not only hospital but also 6-week mortality. The history of hepatocellular carcinoma was the risk factor for 6-week mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 5.5 for 6-week mortality and 6.5 for hospital mortality on admission. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 6.5 for both 6-week and hospital mortality.

CLIF-SOFA score predicted post-EVL prognosis well. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ≥6 suggests higher 6-week mortality and CLIF-SOFA score ≥7 suggests higher hospital mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ≥7 suggests higher 6-week and hospital mortality.