3 years ago

Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula

Parmendra P. Dabral, Lamneithem Hangshing

Abstract

The multivariate frequency analysis of droughts for Agartala (India) was carried out in the present study. The meteorological drought was modelled using Standardised Precipitation Index(SPI) at the time scale of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Three droughts variables i.e., duration, severity, interval were determined for SPI at the time scale of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. For the construction of bivariate and trivariate joint distributions Archimedean and metaelliptical copulas were used. Upper tail dependence test was also carried out. The best copula was selected based on minimum value Akaike’s information criteria (AIC)) and Schwarz information criterion(SIC). The drought risk was estimated using joint probabilities and return period for the study area.

Publisher URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-018-1901-0

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1901-0

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