Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change [Sustainability Science]

Wetland methane (CH₄) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH₄ budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO₂, CH₄ is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH₄ feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH₄ emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH₄ emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH₄ emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH₄ emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH₄ feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m⁻² to 0.19 W·m⁻² by the end of the 21st century. Under the “worst-case” RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH₄ emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH₄ emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH₄ feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.