Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
4 years ago

Development of Pressure-Precipitation Transmitter

Masaru Inatsu, Tamaki Suematsu, Yuta Tamaki, Naoto Nakano, Kao Mizushima, Mizuki Shinohara
A novel method is proposed to create very long-term daily precipitation data for the extreme statistics, by computing very long-term daily sea-level pressure (SLP) with the SLP Emulator, a statistical multi-level regression model, and then converting the SLP into precipitation by combining statistical downscaling (SDS) methods of the analog ensemble and singular value decomposition (SVD). After a review of the SLP emulator, we present the MLR model constructed for each month based on the time series of 1,000 principal components of SLPs on global reanalysis data. Simple integration of the SLP emulator provides 100-year daily SLP data, which are temporally interpolated into 6-hour interval. Next, the pressure-precipitation transmitter (PPT) is developed to convert 6-hourly SLP to the daily precipitation. The PPT makes its first guess estimate from a composite of time-frames with analogous SLP transition patterns in the learning period. The departure of SLPs from the analog ensemble is then corrected with an SVD relationship between SLPs and precipitation. The final product showed a fairly realistic precipitation pattern, displaying temporal and spatial continuity. The annual maximum precipitation of the estimated 100-year data extended the tail of probability distribution of the 8-year learning data.

Publisher URL: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0070.1

DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0070.1

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