Drivers of the northern extratropical eddy‐driven jet change in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
The wintertime mid‐latitude atmospheric circulation is evaluated in CMIP6 models. The biases have been reduced since CMIP5 although the low‐level flow is still too zonal. CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections of 850 hPa zonal wind are then analyzed and are consistent under the RCP8.5 and the SSP5‐8.5 scenarios respectively. A poleward shift is identified in the Pacific, while a tripole structure is found in the North Atlantic: the zonal wind strengthens over Western Europe and decreases north and south. A multiple linear regression allows us to quantify the contribution of different drivers to the inter‐model spread in zonal wind projections. It supports the importance of projected tropical warming and changes in the stratospheric vortex, but also suggests a contribution of the asymmetry in the projected surface warming of the equatorial Pacific and of the present‐day biases in the eddy‐driven jet position. The North Atlantic warming hole plays a weaker role.