Diabetic Medicine
Diabetic Medicine
5 years ago

Updated 24-year trend of Type 1 diabetes incidence in children in Poland reveals a sinusoidal pattern and sustained increase

B. Glowinska-Olszewska, P. Jarosz-Chobot, M. Mysliwiec, A. Chobot, A. Szadkowska, G. Deja, O. Pilecki, J. Polanska, A. Brandt
Aims To present the incidence trend for Type 1 diabetes in Polish children aged 0–14 years, updated using data collected during 2005–2012, and assess the reliability of the predictive model constructed previously using the 1989–2004 database. Methods Children aged < 15 years with newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes are recorded prospectively (EURODIAB criteria) in several regional registers in Poland. Age- and gender-standardized incidence rates for Type 1 diabetes were calculated per 100 000 persons/year. Incidence rates were analysed in terms of the dependency on age, gender, geographical region and population density. Incidence rate trends over time were modelled using generalized linear models. Results The mean standardized incidence for 1989–2012 was 12.72 per 100 000 persons/year [95% confidence interval (CI), 11.35 to 14.21]. Over the 24-year observation period, the incidence increased from 5.36 to 22.74 per 100 000 persons/year. The lowest incidence rate was in children aged 0–4 years (8.35, 95% CI 7.27 to 9.57 per 100 000 persons/year). There was no difference between genders, or urban and rural regions. Incidence rates were higher in northern compared with southern Poland [14.04 (95% CI 12.59 to 15.63) vs. 11.94 (95% CI 10.62 to 13.39) per 100 000 persons/year]. The new data corrected the earlier predictive model by changing the estimates of some factors related to patient age, gender and their interactions with the remaining factors. The incidence rate shows periodic 5.33-year fluctuations. The periodicity component allows for a more accurate prediction of the incidence rate over time. Conclusions This cohort study reveals a sustained increase in Type 1 diabetes incidence in Polish children aged 0–14 years with regular, sinusoidal fluctuations and a slight levelling off in past few years. It is of concern that are the highest increases in incidence are found in children aged 0–4 years.

Publisher URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/doi

DOI: 10.1111/dme.13345

You might also like
Discover & Discuss Important Research

Keeping up-to-date with research can feel impossible, with papers being published faster than you'll ever be able to read them. That's where Researcher comes in: we're simplifying discovery and making important discussions happen. With over 19,000 sources, including peer-reviewed journals, preprints, blogs, universities, podcasts and Live events across 10 research areas, you'll never miss what's important to you. It's like social media, but better. Oh, and we should mention - it's free.

  • Download from Google Play
  • Download from App Store
  • Download from AppInChina

Researcher displays publicly available abstracts and doesn’t host any full article content. If the content is open access, we will direct clicks from the abstracts to the publisher website and display the PDF copy on our platform. Clicks to view the full text will be directed to the publisher website, where only users with subscriptions or access through their institution are able to view the full article.