Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

5 years ago

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

Andreas Hamann, Julia L. Michalak, Tongli Wang, Diana Stralberg, Carlos Carroll, David R. Roberts, Brad H. Mcrae, Scott E. Nielsen, Joshua J. Lawler

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales. There is a pressing need for comparisons of approaches to identifying refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared a range of approaches to identifying refugia across North America to ascertain how metric performance varies with ecological context and scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on more complex metrics such as climatic velocity. Our results suggest guidelines for when and how to use simple and complex metrics for identifying refugia. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a spectrum of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity.

Publisher URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/doi

DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13679